上海股票分析平台

投资101:公司内在价值

键盘投资侠 2021-02-20 12:57:15

接着前文《成长股估值:40倍PE从哪儿来》继续讨论估值的问题。巴菲特在1992年和2000年的股东信中两次系统地回答了这个价值投资最基本的问题,比如1992年的股东信一开始就怼了PB、PE、分红率、收入增长等常见可比估值指标。


Whether appropriate or not, the term "value investing" is widely used. Typically, it connotes the purchase of stockshaving attributes such as a low ratio of price to book value, a low price-earnings ratio, or a high dividend yield. Unfortunately, such characteristics, even if they appear in combination, are far from determinative as to whether an investor is indeed buying something for what it is worth and is therefore truly operating on the principle of obtaining value in his investments... Similarly, business growth, per se, tells us little about value. It's true that growth often has a positive impact on value, sometimes one of spectacular proportions. But such an effect is far from certain. For example, investors have regularly poured money into the domestic airline business to finance profitless (or worse) growth. For these investors,it would have been far better if Orville had failed to get off the ground at Kitty Hawk: The more the industry has grown, the worse the disaster for owners.


大家都知道巴菲特最初买烟屁股,即投资市值少于其营运资金的公司。但经历对纺织业的失败投资(比如收购伯克希尔),巴菲特意识到公司价值并不取决于公司的账面资产,而取决于未来现金流折现。但精确计算未来企业股权产生的现金流显然是一件不可能的事情:


Using precise numbers is, in fact, foolish; working with a range of possibilities is the better approach. Usually, the range must be so wide that no useful conclusion can be reached. Occasionally though, even very conservative estimates about the future emergence of birds reveal that the price quoted is startlingly low in relation to value.


如果相信DCF(未来现金流折现)是可靠的公司价值估算方法,同时承认无法精确估计企业未来现金流的话,分析猿就不该把时间浪费在搭出漂亮的Excel模型上了,而应该换一种问法:DCF算出的估值是否与某些财务特质高度相关?巴菲特的回答是:


Leaving the question of price aside, the best business to own is one that over an extended period can employ large amounts of incremental capital at very high rates of return. The worst business to own is one that must, or will, do the opposite - that is, consistently employ ever-greater amounts of capital at very low rates of return. 


也就是说,好生意能够取得优异的资本回报率。如何理解资本回报率呢?其一是ROE,更精确地说是指公司获得目前利润水平所需投入资本(公司权益扣除超额现金)的回报率;其二是ROIC,指公司进行资本再投入时的投资回报。巴菲特指出这两者通常是冲突的:


Unfortunately, the first type of business is very hard to find: Most high-return businesses need relatively little capital. Shareholders of such a business usually will benefit if it pays out most of its earnings in dividends or makes significant stock repurchases.


因此是否正确使用留存收益是巴菲特非常看重的公司和管理层特质,也是伯克希尔自身的核心生意逻辑。有了这个认知,我们很容易理解巴菲特购买苹果和购买可口可乐股票的逻辑。1989年的股东信关于可口可乐的投资决定:


Through a truly rare blend of marketing andfinancial skills, Roberto has maximized both the growth of his product and the rewards that this growth brings to shareholders. Normally, the CEO of a consumer products company, drawing on his natural inclinations or experience, will cause either marketing or finance to dominate the business at the expense of the other discipline. With Roberto, the mesh of marketing and finance is perfect and theresult is a shareholder's dream.


如果同意上述讨论,那么很容易就能在市场上找到内在价值非常高的公司:轻资产,同时能够将经营产生的现金流全部用于极高回报的再投入。公众号提到的消费品公司,比如Wayfair、Duluth Trading和周黑鸭财务上看均是如此。更有趣的事情是,Mr. Market显然不是这样估值的,两者估值间常常有巨大的差距。


这两天读到最好的公司是海底捞,大家可以试着分析下。

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